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@ -3,6 +3,10 @@
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- TODO: Focus ONLY on social trust, not governments -->
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<!-- TODO: Also, strong early humor. -->
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<!-- TODO: "You guys, it's time for some game theory". -->
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<!-- TODO: "live and let live". -->
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<!-- TODO: it's sometimes RATIONAL to distrust: loop of trust & trustworthiness. -->
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<p id="intro">
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During World War I, peace broke out.
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@ -96,7 +100,7 @@ Wow, that's mean... and also the correct answer!
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</p>
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<p id="oneoff_2_cooperated">
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Sure, seems like the right thing to do... <i>or is it?</i>
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Sure, seems like the right thing to do... <i>OR IS IT??</i>
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</p>
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<p id="oneoff_2_top">
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@ -289,7 +293,7 @@ Congrats, you placed your bet on the right horse.
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</p>
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<p id="tournament_winner_3">
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<span class="tft">Copycat</span> goes by many names.
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The Golden Rule, reciprocal altruism, tit for tat, or... <i>live and let live.</i>
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The Golden Rule, reciprocal altruism, tit for tat, or... <b>live and let live.</b>
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That's why "peace" could emerge in the trenches of World War I:
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when you're forced to play the same game with the
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same <i>specific people</i> (not just the same generic "enemy") over and over again --
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@ -476,8 +480,9 @@ However...
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There are jerks. Look around.
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<br><br>
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If <span class="tft">Copycat</span> is the strategy in this repeated game of trust that's so powerful --
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that even soldiers in the trenches of World War I independently "evolved" a similar strategy --
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why, then, are there so many un-trusting, un-trustworthy people around?
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that even soldiers in World War I trenches independently "evolved" a similar strategy, called "live and let live" --
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why, then, are there so many un-trusting, un-trustworthy people?
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What's causing our epidemic of un-trust?
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<br><br>
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A clue's in that sentence itself. "In <i>this</i> repeated game of trust."
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So far we've only talked about change in the players:
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@ -489,9 +494,196 @@ What could lead to...
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</p>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - NOISE! - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - DISTRUST - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<p id="distrust_1">
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Before everything goes to heck: let's start with something nice.
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A world, mostly populated by nice <span class="tft">Copycats</span>,
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with only one each of a
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mean <span class="all_d">Always Cheat</span>,
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naive <span class="all_c">Always Cooperate</span>,
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unforgiving <span class="grudge">Grudger</span>, and
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manipulative <span class="prober">Detective</span>.
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<br><br>
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Use the buttons on the right to <b>start</b> the simulation,
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go through it <b>step-by-step</b>, or <b>restart</b> it. →
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_2">
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Under our current rules, <span class="tft">Copycat</span> wins easily.
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<br><br>
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But that's under our <i>current</i> rules, which say that
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players play against each other 10 rounds per match.
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What if players had to play 20 rounds? 5 rounds? 3 rounds? 1 round?
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Use the slider below to change this rule, <b>start</b> the simulation,
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and see what happens – then repeat this for as many numbers as you'd like to experiment with:
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_2_end">
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(when you're done, press:)
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_3">
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As you just saw, if you play enough rounds, <span class="tft">Copycat</span> still wins...
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but when people play with each other less and less... suddenly, // HOW MUCH?
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<span class="all_d">ALWAYS CHEAT</span> dominates once again.
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<br><br>
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In 1985, when Americans were asked how many close friends they had,
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the most common answer was "three". In 2004, the most common answer was <i>"zero"</i>.
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Furthermore, we're also (relatively) less likely to
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get married, volunteer, go to church, join organizations, or participate in local politics.
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We're losing our "social capital".
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And as you discovered for yourself just now,
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<b>the fewer "repeat interactions" there are, the more distrust will spread.</b>
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<br><br>
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(and no, mass media doesn't count:
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it has to be repeat <i>two-way</i> interactions between <i>specific individuals</i>.)
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_3_btn">
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oh, it gets worse... →
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_4">
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There's another way to breed distrust.
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Here are the "payoffs" for a single round of the trust game:
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_4_end">
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Note: although the reward for mutual trust (+2) is less than the temptation to exploit (+3),
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with enough repeat interaction, trust can still win!
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But now, <b>click the arrows above to change the reward from +2 to +1,
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then click "start".</b>
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Even though +1 is still more than the punishment for mutual distrust (0)...
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what happens?
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<br><br>
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(<i>after</i> you try that, feel free to play around with different "payoff" combinations!
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once you're done experimenting, hit:)
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_4_note">
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(simulating: 5 rounds per match)
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_5">
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So even if the reward for getting a "win-win" is still <i>more</i>
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than the punishment for a "lose-lose"...
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<b>if the reward for mutual trust is <i>too</i> low, distrust evolves.</b>
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<br><br>
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I think, as a culture, we're losing the value of finding "win-wins".
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We're more interested in "win-lose", because viciousness gets views, conflict gets clicks.
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We'd rather live and let die.
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Maybe I'm just overthinking things, maybe I'm just old and shaking my fist at a cloud...
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but don't you feel it? That we've forgotten something?...
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_5_btn">
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...whatevs i dunno →
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_6">
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Aaaaanyway, you can now play with both the number of rounds <i>and</i> the payoffs!
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These two things interact with each other a lot.
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For example, even though a low +1 reward creates distrust with 5 rounds per match,
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trust can still win with <i>10</i> rounds per match! (Click <b>START</b> to simulate this)
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_6_end">
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Once you're done experimenting,
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(and there'll be a <i>much</i> bigger "sandbox" to play around with at the end)
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let's take a look at our final, most interesting barrier to trust...
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</p>
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<p id="distrust_6_btn">
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<strikethrough>Misteaks</strikethrough> Mistakes. →
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</p>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - NOISE! - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<p id="noise_1">
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As cool as <span class="tft">Copycat</span> is, it has a huge, fatal weakness I haven't mentioned yet.
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To understand it, let's imagine two <span class="tft">Copycats</span> are playing against each other:
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</p>
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<p id="noise_1_end">
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Being a nice player, both their first moves will be:
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</p>
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<p id="noise_2">
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And normally, they'd just pay back each others' kindness and sing Kumbaya 'til the end of days.
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</p>
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<p id="noise_2_end">
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But what if, while trying to reciprocate...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_3">
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<b>OH NO</b>
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<br>
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Mistakes, miscommunication, misinterpretations -- accidents happen all the time in real life.
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</p>
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<p id="noise_3_end">
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But if the other person doesn't <i>think</i> it was an accident...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_4">
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<b>OH NO x2</b>
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<br>
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The other player, being a <span class="tft">Copycat</span>, <i>had<i> to retaliate...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_4_end">
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...and you, being a <span class="tft">Copycat</span> as well, will <i>also</i> have to retaliate...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_5">
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And like the Hatfields and McCoys, or the Crips and Bloods,
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these two <span class="tft">Copycats</span> will spiral into an endless feud of vengeance...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_5_end">
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...that started over a <i>single</i> mistake, long forgotten.
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<br><br>
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How tragic. But now, are there other characters, types of players, who can...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_5_btn">
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...survive mistakes? →
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</p>
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<p id="noise_characters">
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Let's meet some new faces!
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</p>
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<p id="character_tf2t">
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<b>COPYKITTEN:</b>
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Hello! I'm like <span class="tft">Copycat</span>,
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except I Cheat back only after you Cheat me twice in a row.
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After all, the first one could be a mistake! Purrrrr
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</p>
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<p id="character_pavlov">
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<b>SIMPLETON:</b>
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hi i try start cooperate. (unless i make mistake)
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if you cooperate back => good thing => i do same thing as last move. (even if it was mistake)
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if you cheat back => bad thing => i do opposite thing as last move. (even if it was mistake)
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</p>
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<p id="character_random">
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<b>RANDOM:</b>
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<i>Monkey robot! Ninja pizza tacos! lol i'm so random</i>
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(Just plays Cheat or Cooperate randomly with a 50/50 chance)
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</p>
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<p id="noise_characters_end">
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Alright, let's see how well these peeps do when they...
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</p>
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<p id="noise_characters_btn">
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...play against each other →
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</p>
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<!-- fixed 5% chance: winner simpleton, then copykitten -->
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<!-- Need to simulate first to write words, i dunno -->
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<!-- (Recap distrust) nonlinear barrier: from 0% to 5% to etc etc... -->
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<!-- MIS-COMMUNICATION & OVER-PUNISHMENT in real life -->
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<!-- How's this all interact? Finally, the SANDBOX. -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - SANDBOX! - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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@ -532,7 +724,10 @@ In each round of a one-on-one game, there's a [N]% chance a player makes a mista
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</p>
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<p id="sandbox_end">
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...once you're done playing around in Sandbox Mode, click:
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...once you're done playing around, let's recap
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</p>
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<p id="sandbox_end_btn">
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what we've learnt →
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</p>
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@ -541,15 +736,43 @@ In each round of a one-on-one game, there's a [N]% chance a player makes a mista
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<!-- - - - - CONCLUSION! - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<p id="conclusion">
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blah blah blah blah
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blah blah blah blah<br>
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blah blah blah blah
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blah blah blah blah<br>
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blah blah blah blah
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blah blah blah blah<br>
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blah blah blah blah
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blah blah blah blah<br>
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<p id="conclusion_1">
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TRUST:
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- repeated interaction:
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- win-win:
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- dealing with mistakes: forgive, and try to be clear and honest yourself
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DISTRUST:
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- loss of social capital
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- win-lose, use versus them, zero-sum
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- gleefully punishing even small mistakes
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But above all, there's also...
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</p>
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<p id="conclusion_btn">
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...the bigger lesson →
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</p>
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<p id="conclusion_2">
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Don't hate the player, hate the game.
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<br>
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Game theory lesson.
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<br>
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Short term: game changes players. But don't be cynical
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<br>
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Long term: players change game, from the bottom up -- evolution.
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<br>
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So if we wanna cure our epidemic of distrust,
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and rebuild a trusting & trustworthy civic society, it's up to all of <i>us.</i>
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Let's all learn and act to find win-wins,
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to create repeated interactions,
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(and...)
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</p>
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<p id="conclusion_2">
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...to live and let live.
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<!-- the christmas truce pic/photo(?) circular pic... words overlaid -->
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</p>
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<p id="conclusion_button">
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@ -557,7 +780,12 @@ blah blah blah blah<br>
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</p>
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@ -706,15 +934,18 @@ next →
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<p id="chapter_evolution">
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4. Repeated Tournament
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</p>
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<p id="chapter_distrust">
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5. The Evolution of Distrust
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</p>
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<p id="chapter_noise">
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5. Making Mistaeks
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6. Making Mistaeks
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</p>
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<p id="chapter_sandbox">
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6. Sandbox Mode
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7. Sandbox Mode
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</p>
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<p id="chapter_conclusion">
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7. Conclusion
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8. Conclusion
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</p>
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<p id="chapter_credits">
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Credits
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9. Credits
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</p>
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Nicky Case
7 years ago