therefore, understand the conditions of trust, its mechanisms
---
And your total score is...
BIG NUMBER which is, wow, actually _impressively_ bad. // 8
which, uh, could be worse! // 9 to 21
which ain't bad! // 22 to 34
which is pretty good! // 34 to 48
which is actually _perfect_ // 49
which i have no idea how you accomplished
(the lowest & highest possible scores
are 8 and 49, respectively.)
So who were these strange characters you just played against?
COPYCAT:
Hello! I start with Cooperate, and afterwards, I just copy whatever you did in the last round. Meow
ALWAYS CHEAT:
_the strong shall eat the weak_
ALWAYS COOPERATE:
Let's be best friends! <3
GRUDGER:
Listen, stranger. I'll start cooperatin', and keep cooperation', but if y'all ever cheat me, I'LL CHEAT YOU BACK TIL THE END OF DAYS.
DETECTIVE:
First: I analyze you. I start: Cooperate, Cheat, Cooperate, Cooperate. If you cheat back, I'll act like Copycat. If you never cheat back, I'll act like Always Cheat, to exploit you. Elementary.
During the trench warfare<br>of World War I, peace broke out.
During World War I, peace broke out.
<br><br>
It was Christmas 1914.
Despite strict orders not to chill<br>
with the enemy, British and German soldiers left their trenches,<br>
and gathered to bury their dead, exchange gifts, and sing.
This wasn't unique. Even long before Christmas,
soldiers already had an unspoken system of "live and let live" --
a small peace in a Great War.
It was Christmas 1914 on the Western Front.<br>
Despite strict orders <i>not</i> to chill out with the enemy, British<br>
and German soldiers left their trenches, crossed No Man's Land,<br>
and gathered together to bury their dead, to exchange gifts, to sing.
<br><br>
Meanwhile, the West is now at peace, and yet,
we distrust our governments, media, and <i>each other</i> more and more.
So, we gotta ask:
<b>
Why, even in the best of times, do friends become enemies?
But also why, even in the worst of times, why do enemies become friends?
</b>
Meanwhile: it's 2017, the West has been at peace for decades, and<br>
we're less trusting than ever. Fewer and fewer people say they trust their<br>
governments, their media, or even <i>each other</i>. So here's our puzzle:
<br><br>
These are complex questions, but a simple idea from game<br>
theory can help shed some light! So, to understand<br>our epidemic of distrust...
<b>Why, even in good times, do friends become enemies?<br>
And why, even in bad times, do enemies become friends?</b>
<br><br>
I think game theory can help explain our epidemic of distrust –<br>
and how we can fix it! So, to understand all this...
</p>
<pid="intro_button">
...let's play a game. →
@ -35,82 +32,180 @@ theory can help shed some light! So, to understand<br>our epidemic of distrust..
<!------- ONE OFF! --------->
<!-------------------->
<pid="label_you_cooperate">
you<br>cooperate
</p>
<pid="label_you_cheat">
you<br>cheat
</p>
<pid="label_they_cooperate">
they<br>cooperate
</p>
<pid="label_they_cheat">
they<br>cheat
</p>
<pid="label_you">
you<br>↙
</p>
<pid="label_them">
other player<br>↘
</p>
<pid="oneoff_0_top">
<b>THE GAME OF TRUST:</b>
<b>THE GAME OF TRUST</b>
<br>
There's a machine. If one player puts a coin in the machine, the <i>other</i> player gets three coins.
A player can either choose to <b>COOPERATE</b> (put in one coin), or <b>CHEAT</b> (keep their coin).
You have one choice.
In front of you is a machine: if you put a coin in the machine,
the <i>other player</i> gets three coins – and vice versa.
You both can either choose to COOPERATE (put in coin), or CHEAT (don't put in coin).
</p>
<pid="oneoff_0_btm">
But there's a problem. Think about it: if the other player CHEATS, what should you do?
Let's say the other player cheats, and doesn't put in a coin.<br>
What should you do?
</p>
<pid="oneoff_1_cheated">
Fair enough – if the other player won't cooperate, why should you?
Exactly! Why let that moocher mooch off of you?
</p>
<pid="oneoff_1_cooperated">
Alas, turning the other cheek just gets you slapped on that cheek.
Alas, turning the other cheek just gets you slapped!
</p>
<pid="oneoff_1_top">
Cooperating while the other person cheats means you lose a coin while they get three. (-1 vs +3)
However, both of you cheating means you both neither gain nor lose anything. (0 vs 0)
Therefore, you should <b>CHEAT</b>.
If you cooperate & they cheat, you lose a coin while they gain three. (score: -1 vs +3)
However, if you both cheat, neither of you gain or lose anything. (score: 0 vs 0)
<b>Therefore: you should CHEAT.</b>
</p>
<pid="oneoff_1_btm">
But if the other player <b>COOPERATES</b>, what should you do now?
But let's say the other player cooperates, and puts in a coin.<br>
What should you do now?
</p>
<pid="oneoff_2_cheated">
Wow, that's mean. And also the correct answer!
Wow, that's mean... and also the correct answer!
</p>
<pid="oneoff_2_cooperated">
Yeah, seems like the right thing to do... but is it the *correct* thing to do?
Sure, seems like the right thing to do... <i>or is it?</i>
</p>
<pid="oneoff_2_top">
Because, if you both cooperate, you both lose one coin and gain three (+2 vs +2).
But you can do <i>even better</i>– if you cheat while they cooperate,
<i>you</i> can gain three coins at no cost, while they lose a coin. (+3 vs -1)
Therefore, you should <i>still</i><b>CHEAT</b>.
Because if you both cooperate, you both give up a coin to gain three. (score: +2 vs +2)
But if you cheat & they cooperate, you gain three coins at their cost of one. (score: +3 vs -1)
<b>Therefore: you "should" still CHEAT.</b>
</p>
<pid="oneoff_2_btm">
blah blah blah blah. But what if...
And <i>that's</i> the dilemma of trust.
You'd both be better off trusting each other, but trust leaves you vulnerable.
But what happens if we can...
</p>
<pid="oneoff_button_next">
...we play more than once? →
...play more than once? →
</p>
<!-------------------->
<!------- ITERATED --------->
<!-------------------->
<pid="iterated_intro_top">
<b>Now, let's play for real.</b><br>
You'll be playing against 5 different opponents, each with their own "personality".
With each opponent, you'll play anywhere between 3 to 7 rounds.
Can you trust them? Or rather... can they trust <i>you?</i>
</p>
<pid="iterated_intro_btm">
Choose your first, <b>real</b> move:
</p>
<pid="iterated_info_1">
opponent:
opponent: [X] of [Y]
</p>
</p>
<pid="iterated_info_2">
your total score:
</p>
<!-------------------->
<!------ TOURNAMENT! -------->
<!-------------------->
<pid="iterated_score_start">
And your total score is...
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_1">
which is, wow, actually <i>impressively</i> bad.
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_2">
which, uh, could be worse!
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_3">
which ain't bad!
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_4">
which is pretty good!
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_5">
which is <i>perfect!</i> Congrats you have too much time on your hands.
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_x">
...i have no idea how you did that.
</p>
<pid="iterated_score_end">
(the lowest & highest possible scores are 8 and 49, respectively)
</p>
<pid="characters">
COPYCAT: I start with Cooperate, and then, I just copy whatever move you did last time. Meow
<br><br>
ALWAYS CHEAT: i hate you
<br><br>
ALWAYS COOPERATE: I love you! <3
<br><br>
GRUDGER: "Listen y'all – I start Cooperatin', and I'll keep on Cooperatin'... but if you ever Cheat me once, pardner, I AIN'T EVER FORGIVIN' YOU."
<br><br>
DETECTIVE: "First: I analyze you. I start: Cooperate, Cheat, Cooperate, Cooperate. Then: if you retaliated with a Cheat, I switch to playing Copycat. But: if you never fight back, I switch to Always Cheat. My dear Watson: elementary."
<br><br>
now what if these characters were to play...
<pid="who_were">
So who were these strange characters you just played against?
</p>
<pid="character_tft">
<b>COPYCAT:</b>
Hello! I start with Cooperate, and afterwards, I just copy whatever you did in the last round. Meow
</p>
<pid="character_all_d">
<b>ALWAYS CHEAT:</b>
<i>the strong shall eat the weak</i>
</p>
<pid="character_all_c">
<b>ALWAYS COOPERATE:</b>
Let's be best friends! <3
</p>
<pid="character_grudge">
<b>GRUDGER:</b>
Listen, stranger. I'll start cooperatin', and keep cooperation',
but if y'all ever cheat me, I'LL CHEAT YOU BACK TIL THE END OF DAYS.
</p>
<pid="character_prober">
<b>DETECTIVE:</b>
First: I analyze you. I start: Cooperate, Cheat, Cooperate, Cooperate.
If you cheat back, I'll act like Copycat.
If you never cheat back, I'll act like Always Cheat, to exploit you.
Elementary, my dear Watson.
</p>
<pid="characters_teaser">
Now, what if these characters were to play...
</p>
<pid="characters_button">
...against each other? →
</p>
<!-------------------->
<!------ TOURNAMENT! -------->
<!-------------------->
<pid="place_your_bets">
It's tournament time!
These five characters will now play against each other – 10 paired games, 10 rounds per game.
Nicky Case
7 years ago
